Results/News/Analysis

Results/News/Analysis

Just some analysis and a update on some of the angles and results with the figs.

Well, only one leg of the Triple Crown left. Might be the first time the triple
crown is won by the jockey, but not with any one particular
horse.....interesting. Will the Filly run? As of this time, it looks more like a
no, but it would be fun to see those two hook up again!

The Figs held up very well for the Preakness. Using just the HUP ratings it
nailed the exacta cold.....for a solid payoff of $39.00. The Filly was on the
low side for a win bet, but the exacta afforded great value in my analysis. I
cashed pretty nicely, hope some of you did too!

Had some time to review Belmont Saturday 5/9/09
Race 1: 4 horses all close in FigDif ratings, Trophy Road, Goodson, Missle Motor,
Golden Man. Golden Man with the best CV+, but the worst FigDif of the contenders, so have to
keep him in the mix. Tough race, just using our sheets, hard to differentiate all 4 of these. Well
they all ran well except Goodson. Checking the Racing Form or track program, you would see
that out of all horses in our top 4, he does not show an in the money try on off tracks. If you then
throw him out, or at worst use him only on the bottom of your exotics, the $50 exacta and $700
triple become pretty easy to catch. Gotta do your homework!

Race 2: Toque clearly the best FigDif then any others wins and pays $6.10, the third best FigDif
gets second for a $47 exacta.... play would be to WIN and Toque over Four Star General and
Heavenly Blaze, then as a saver wager, those 2 over Toque, if you are into saver plays.
Toque was clearly best by FigDif (.4 to a -.5)

Race 3: Jack On The Rocks wins.... cant really figure this out unless we look past his last race,
which we wont get into here, when we start showing the last 3 races(in the very near future) we
can look at other things other than the last race, so at this time lets let this race go as a loss.

Race 4: Two contenders here, Samhoon and Undocumented. Both with O FigDif. Samhoon with
a little better CV+ (a -.5 to -.6) but more importantly Fig1 is 13:13 to a 12:0 for Undocumented. I try
to avoid very slow early speed especially when more than 5 points below the race rating. The
race rating for Undocumented is 12 and he gave a 0 effort, not good at all. Where Samhoon gave
a full 13 for a 13 race rating. So we have speed and a no speed horse like Undocumented. We
will always take speed when comparing two horses of equal or close in FigDif. So Samhoon is
the win bet and use on top of Undocumented and use the third best FigDif horse Commodore
Way also. We cash the win bet at $6.60 and take a $21 exacta as well.

Race 5: Three first time starters(unrateable) in a small field spell.....SKIP THE RACE!

Race 6:Only two contenders here when just using FigDif, Pocket Cowboys and City On Line.
Pocket Cowboys has the best FigDif (0) and the second best is City On Line with a -.2, CV+
values are equal at 0. City On Line has a slow Fig1 (10:5) so he could only give a 5 for a race that
required a 10. Pocket Cowboys gave a 12 for a race required a 12(we saw this pattern a few
races ago, speed, and no speed) So lets bet Pocket Cowboys to win, and atop of City On Line,
no one else really close so thats it. Maybe a small saver with City On Line on top of Pocket
Cowboys. Win bet gets us $6.20 and the exacta pays $29.....easy game at times.

Race 7: Ok, got 3 first timers, but have 5 rateable horses, so close to being a pass race, or
playable. Would not blame you if you passed, but lets recap it as there are a few good lessons in
here to watch for. Best FigDif horse is Abu Racer but his CV+ is terrible at a -2.1, this horse is a
throwout, a CV+ of worse than a -1 is questionable to consider, but a -2.1 is a throwout, unless
the whole field has equally as poor CV+ ratings. We have in here a horse with a -.4 FigDif with a
-.2 CV+, Cabaret Cowboy with a very fast 18:18 Fig1. Also a -.8 FigDif with a 0 CV+ rating held by
Ricoriatoa. Steel Blue is also close as well. If we box all 3 and mostly concentrate on our horse
with the best FigDif value, Cabaret Cowboy we catch only a $5.00 win payoff, but a generous
$35 exacta!

8th Race: Ok good race to learn how to use the figs right here......
Best FigDif horse is Karakorum On Black, but there is that dreaded -2.2 CV+ value, so again we
throw out this horse as there are other contenders with mich better CV+ ratings.

Now, the best FigDif horse is Townie's Dream with a 0. Cv+ is ok at -.2, ok on Fig1 speed as well,
so a contender.

Next best FigDif horse are Millirock and Wirebuster with -.8. But Millirock has a lowly -.8 CV+
value so at best he would be used for second or third, not on the top of our ticket.
Wirebuster has a very positive CV+ value at .3 and to boot, he also has what we love to see and
makes him a big time contender is a very positive Fig2 valeue. He was only 3 below on Fig1,
giving a 8 out of 11. But his Fig2 was a 13 when the race required a 11! That is big especially
when the Fig1 value is good as well. When the Horse rating is more than 1 above the race rating
that is strong, especially in the Fig2 rating. He is a big time contender at over 12 to 1!!

Next FigDif horse is Gold Close To Home. Not a great FigDif at -1.2 , but that CV+ at .5 is big and
he does have good speed as well. Have to use him as a contender.

Bets would be WireBuster to Win, and since he is a good price at 12 to 1, we can bet place as
well. We dont want to not be able to cash on this one if he runs as well as his figs show. The in
aexacta, use him on top and bottom of our other 2 horse. He almost gets the job done, but runs
second. We still cash some nice tickets, with a $10 place ticket and a $64 exacta. The HUP
ratings really shined here and it could have been alot more if he won!

9th Race: Too complex a race....alot of CV+ movement. Need alot of balancing to get a feel for
each horse. The best FigDif is a horse with the much the worst CV+, Hello Broadway. Next are a
tie with -.8, one with a CV+ of 3, the other a CV+ of 1.5. Have to give the edge to Scorewithcater.
Next, FigDif horse is Charitable Man, and his CV+ is a very strong 2.8. Another strong CV+ is
Imperial Council and his FigDif is very close to Charitable Man. Hmmm. Also Stately Character
with a good CV+ and a little short on FigDif and early speed Fig1. Confusing, cloudt picture in
this race. Mighta pulled something out of this race and won, and maybe not. Good race to bet
easy on or pass. cant take much credit for this one though.

10 Race: Lotta horse to think about, not the best situation I like to bet on. Here goes.... Best
FigDif is Gamblin Fever, but a -1 CV+ means we toss him. Next is Joey Chance, looks ok.
Looking For Malibu, next in FigDif looks ok, but poor Fig1 being a -7 (10:3), not a winner but
could be in the money only. Next is Monastir, looks ok but another slow Fig1, showing him a -6
(17:11), maybe underneath our tickets, but not the look of a winner. Pretty BoyFreud looks like
a contender also, maybe a win contender also. Lastly in the top horses is John Wyatt, another
slow Fig1 horse, but with that CV+ of 1, we can overlook that bad Fig1. I see too much confusion
and potential win choices and alot of horses to be used for in the money finishes only. having
more than 4 contenders gets chancy. 4 contenders ....Hmmm..... pass the race or throw then into
the air and box them all in a superfecta for 10 cent box costing I think $2.40 for some action on
all our work on the race. Well, we would have caught the super, it was $998 on 2$, so I think we
could have gotten back about $50....not bad for just taking a shot, I guess.

Followed the AQU card for 3/19 Thursday
First race: Top 2 standout FigDif horses ran 1-2 and paid $5.80 Win, 2nd horse paid
$10.80 Place and a nice $61.50 exacta by boxing the top 2 horses, sometimes it is
too easy!

2nd Race: Interesting but too short. Stealth Missle's FigAvg were so much the best,
maybe as high a difference as I ever seen, that with the CV of a .1 makes him a
contender, but at 1/2 odds, not a good bet, and maybe not a good horse to even bet
against either. He only held on by a neck!

3rd Race: sticking with the theory to usually avoid(eliminate for Win) horse with a
CV of -.5 or more, leaves us with 2 horse with the best FigDif and no one else even
close. One Tough Belle had the best FigDif at -.2 wins and pays $6.40, Victorious
Dream with the second best FigDif completes our cold exact for $20.40

4th Race....We run out, weird race

5th Race : The horse who was tied with the 2nd best FigDif(only .2 difference) but
he shows one of our favorite angles, his CV is ok, cant eliminate him on that, FigDif
is right there, but that Fig2 number relates to a +3, and that usually spells a good
performance is upcoming. He wins at $5.60.......its Aqueduct and prices tend to be
short, so we have to deal with it, or be very patient and only play when we are
getting exceptional value.

6th Race: Our play here would finish 2nd at 4/5

7th Race: We eliminate 3 horse because of poor CV (worse than -.5) leaving us with
one horse with the best by far FigDif and get paid $9.70 for this standout! The $105
exacta was very pickable as the horse that finished second was the best of the 3
horses we eliminated from the win spot

8th Race: BelieveInMeNow was a very solid play in every way with our figs. Only
paid $4.80, but was not the favorite in this field, but to us it was a standout. Double
paid $21...thankyou

9th Race: 2nd best FigDif, much the best CV, being .8 more than any other horse in
the race, make him jumpout at us....pays $8.10 to win and $92 Pick 3

******************************************************************************************************

Saturday 2/14 - Had some time to watch tonite, rough nite, short prices, but easily
nabbed the last race exacta($53), triple($257) and Superfecta($609)

Saturday 2/7 Got a chance to watch AQU today, ALOT of chalk, low priced winners. We picked
our share of them, but hard to make a buck on too many shorties. Had a few $50 exactas during
the week, a good amount of $8 to $15 horses mixed in the many short priced horses. Did not get
a look at the other tracks. Subscribers.... let me know of any nice hits recently.

Sunday 2/1 We keep rolling at AQU, best FigDif
horse in the first Shoot The Bugler pays$66.50,
and we catch a $559 Triple in the 5th, few others
as well!!

QUESTION FROM A SUBSCRIBER(Reprinted with permission)

Hello.....is there any signifigance to the size of the fig number or are we looking at
the difference only as in 15:16 or 10:11 in the same race? Thanx Doug
Doug,
Great question. Not sure I can give you a great answer. For the most part the value
it self seems to not have as much influence as the dif between the values. I think if
we just look at the values we fall back to looking at things as everyone else does.
We have debated about just giving that fig dif value for each part of the race, but
feel if the individual player can incorporate into his/her handicapping style, that we
then should provide them as well. From my standpoint I dont give it too much
value, but do give it a small factor value, especially in close to call races. Thats me
though. Keep in mind this project is a work in progress. We know the HUP figs and
the CV are very good. If you look at a few races that have already been run, and
look at the winners of those races, you will see that the vast majority of winners
will display at least one of the strong attributes that our mentioned on the website.
The project has been so overwhelming that the time we can spend analyzing is
small. In time we plan on having a day to day analysis of at least one track and
reviewing it. If you look in the "Results/News/Lessons" page I do some looking
back at past races. I did look at AQU today and a few things did jump out, like the
winner of the first, and another horse, who I believe was the favorite who we would
totally eliminate through the ratings, who did finish out. Hopefully will get that up
shortly. If you don't mind, I will post your question and my answer as well. Thanks,
TSH